Beyond the near-term turmoil, there may need to be a re-evaluation of the regional banking model in the United States, according to a recent panel hosted by Stephen Dover, Head of Franklin Templeton Institute. The panel discussed the latest developments and investment implications—including a move to money market funds.
Uneasiness about the health of the banking sector has spread from Silicon Valley Bank to other US regional banks, and also across the Atlantic to Europe. This contagion is reminder that fear itself can be a self-fulfilling prophecy. This unfolding stress, plus the ninth consecutive Federal Reserve (Fed) interest-rate increase and the likelihood of more rate increases to come has led to a near freeze in new corporate debt issuance, even for the companies with the highest credit ratings. However, financial markets are essentially pricing in that the Fed is wrong, and that growth will cool and rates will drop by year end. The Fed’s monetary policy plans and the current market outlook are irreconcilable. Which view is right? We gathered four experts across various areas of the financial sector to help to dissect what the risks are and where the opportunities might be. Following are highlights of our discussion. Watch the full replay here.
We want to thank Miguel del Gallego (Senior Research Analyst, ClearBridge Investments, US Financials, Regional and Small Banks), Ivor Schucking (Research Analyst, Western Asset Management, US Financials), Bill Zox(Co-Portfolio Manager, Brandywine Global, High Yield and Corporate Credit Strategies), and Muhammad Waqas (Benefit Street Partners, Senior Research Analyst, Financial Services) for their participation in the discussion.
All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal. The value of investments can go down as well as up, and investors may not get back the full amount invested.
Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors, or general market conditions. Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. Thus, as prices of bonds in an investment portfolio adjust to a rise in interest rates, the value of the portfolio may decline.
Bond prices generally move in the opposite direction of interest rates. Thus, as prices of bonds in an investment portfolio adjust to a rise in interest rates, the value of the portfolio may decline. Stock prices fluctuate, sometimes rapidly and dramatically, due to factors affecting individual companies, particular industries or sectors or general market conditions. Changes in the financial strength of a bond issuer or in a bond’s credit rating may affect its value.
Any companies and/or case studies referenced herein are used solely for illustrative purposes; any investment may or may not be currently held by any portfolio advised by Franklin Templeton. The information provided is not a recommendation or individual investment advice for any particular security, strategy, or investment product and is not an indication of the trading intent of any Franklin Templeton managed portfolio.
Investing in private companies involves a number of significant risks, including that they: may have limited financial resources and may be unable to meet their obligations under their debt securities, which may be accompanied by a deterioration in the value of any collateral and a reduction in the likelihood of realizing any guarantees that may have obtained in connection with the investment; have shorter operating histories, narrower product lines and smaller market shares than larger businesses, which tend to render them more vulnerable to competitors’ actions and changing market conditions, as well as general economic downturns; are more likely to depend on the management talents and efforts of a small group of persons; therefore, the death, disability, resignation or termination of one or more of these persons could have a material adverse impact on the portfolio company and, in turn, on the investment; generally have less predictable operating results, may from time to time be parties to litigation, may be engaged in rapidly changing businesses with products subject to a substantial risk of obsolescence, and may require substantial additional capital to support their operations, finance expansion or maintain their competitive position.
Real estate securities involve special risks, such as declines in the value of real estate and increased susceptibility to adverse economic or regulatory developments affecting the sector.
This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or published without prior written permission from Franklin Templeton.
The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The underlying assumptions and these views are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market. There is no assurance that any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets will be realized. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount that you invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative nor a guarantee of future performance. All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal.
Any research and analysis contained in this material has been procured by Franklin Templeton for its own purposes and may be acted upon in that connection and, as such, is provided to you incidentally. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Although information has been obtained from sources that Franklin Templeton believes to be reliable, no guarantee can be given as to its accuracy and such information may be incomplete or condensed and may be subject to change at any time without notice. The mention of any individual securities should neither constitute nor be construed as a recommendation to purchase, hold or sell any securities, and the information provided regarding such individual securities (if any) is not a sufficient basis upon which to make an investment decision. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user.
Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own financial professional or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.
CFA® and Chartered Financial Analyst® are trademarks owned by CFA Institute.
_______
1. An AT1 is a form of Contingent Convertible (CoCo) bond which a bank struggling financially does not have to repay.
Link to Stephen H. Dover, CFA‘s articles
Chief Market Strategist and Head of Franklin Templeton Institute
Franklin Templeton
Receive email alerts when a new blog is posted.
Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *
This material is intended to be of general interest only and should not be construed as individual investment advice or a recommendation or solicitation to buy, sell or hold any security or to adopt any investment strategy. It does not constitute legal or tax advice. This material may not be reproduced, distributed or published without prior written permission from Franklin Templeton.
The views expressed are those of the investment manager and the comments, opinions and analyses are rendered as at publication date and may change without notice. The underlying assumptions and these views are subject to change based on market and other conditions and may differ from other portfolio managers or of the firm as a whole. The information provided in this material is not intended as a complete analysis of every material fact regarding any country, region or market. There is no assurance that any prediction, projection or forecast on the economy, stock market, bond market or the economic trends of the markets will be realized. The value of investments and the income from them can go down as well as up and you may not get back the full amount that you invested. Past performance is not necessarily indicative nor a guarantee of future performance. All investments involve risks, including possible loss of principal.
Any research and analysis contained in this material has been procured by Franklin Templeton for its own purposes and may be acted upon in that connection and, as such, is provided to you incidentally. Data from third party sources may have been used in the preparation of this material and Franklin Templeton (“FT”) has not independently verified, validated or audited such data. Although information has been obtained from sources that Franklin Templeton believes to be reliable, no guarantee can be given as to its accuracy and such information may be incomplete or condensed and may be subject to change at any time without notice. The mention of any individual securities should neither constitute nor be construed as a recommendation to purchase, hold or sell any securities, and the information provided regarding such individual securities (if any) is not a sufficient basis upon which to make an investment decision. FT accepts no liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this information and reliance upon the comments, opinions and analyses in the material is at the sole discretion of the user.
Products, services and information may not be available in all jurisdictions and are offered outside the U.S. by other FT affiliates and/or their distributors as local laws and regulation permits. Please consult your own financial professional or Franklin Templeton institutional contact for further information on availability of products and services in your jurisdiction.
Canada: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investments Corp., 200 King Street West, Suite 1500 Toronto, ON, M5H3T4, Fax: (416) 364-1163, (800) 387-0830, www.franklintempleton.ca
Offshore Americas: In the U.S., this publication is made available only to financial intermediaries by Franklin Distributors, LLC, member FINRA/SIPC, 100 Fountain Parkway, St. Petersburg, Florida 33716. Tel: (800) 239-3894 (USA Toll-Free), (877) 389-0076 (Canada Toll-Free), and Fax: (727) 299-8736. Investments are not FDIC insured; may lose value; and are not bank guaranteed. Distribution outside the U.S. may be made by Franklin Templeton International Services, S.à r.l. (FTIS) or other sub-distributors, intermediaries, dealers or professional investors that have been engaged by FTIS to distribute shares of Franklin Templeton funds in certain jurisdictions. This is not an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to purchase securities in any jurisdiction where it would be illegal to do so.
Issued in Europe by: Franklin Templeton International Services S.à r.l. – Supervised by the Commission de Surveillance du Secteur Financier – 8A, rue Albert Borschette, L-1246 Luxembourg. Tel: +352-46 66 67-1 Fax: +352-46 66 76. Poland: Issued by Templeton Asset Management (Poland) TFI S.A.; Rondo ONZ 1; 00-124 Warsaw. South Africa: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investments SA (PTY) Ltd, which is an authorised Financial Services Provider. Tel: +27 (21) 831 7400 Fax: +27 (21) 831 7422. Switzerland: Issued by Franklin Templeton Switzerland Ltd, Stockerstrasse 38, CH-8002 Zurich. United Arab Emirates: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investments (ME) Limited, authorized and regulated by the Dubai Financial Services Authority. Dubai office: Franklin Templeton, The Gate, East Wing, Level 2, Dubai International Financial Centre, P.O. Box 506613, Dubai, U.A.E. Tel: +9714-4284100 Fax: +9714-4284140. UK: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investment Management Limited (FTIML), registered office: Cannon Place, 78 Cannon Street, London EC4N 6HL. Tel: +44 (0)20 7073 8500. Authorized and regulated in the United Kingdom by the Financial Conduct Authority.
Australia: Issued by Franklin Templeton Australia Limited (ABN 76 004 835 849) (Australian Financial Services License Holder No. 240827), Level 47, 120 Collins Street, Mellbourne, Victoria 3000. Hong Kong: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investments (Asia) Limited, 17/F, Chater House, 8 Connaught Road Central, Hong Kong. Japan: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investments Japan Limited. Korea: Issued by Franklin Templeton Investment Trust Management Co., Ltd., 3rd fl., CCMM Building, 12 Youido-Dong, Youngdungpo-Gu, Seoul, Korea 150-968. Malaysia: Issued by Franklin Templeton Asset Management (Malaysia) Sdn. Bhd. & Franklin Templeton GSC Asset Management Sdn. Bhd. This document has not been reviewed by Securities Commission Malaysia. Singapore: Issued by Templeton Asset Management Ltd. Registration No. (UEN) 199205211E and Legg Mason Asset Management Singapore Pte. Limited, Registration Number (UEN) 200007942R. Legg Mason Asset Management Singapore Pte. Limited is an indirect wholly owned subsidiary of Franklin Resources, Inc. 7 Temasek Boulevard, #38-03 Suntec Tower One, 038987, Singapore.
Please visit www.franklinresources.com to be directed to your local Franklin Templeton website.
Copyright © 2022 Franklin Templeton. All rights reserved.
© 2023. Franklin Templeton Investments. All rights reserved.
